Duke vs Virginia - Thoughts, Score Prediction and Game Notes
Duke heads up the road to Charlottesville to take on Virginia tomorrow with a 3:00 PM kickoff. In my opinion, Virginia is the toughest two win team in the country right now. UVA beat UNC, loss to Miami in overtime, and only loss to Louisville by 7 points. As of this writing Duke is only favored by - 3.5 points with the Over/Under at 46.5 points. With that said, I think this is a close game but Duke takes over in the fourth quarter and pulls out the win and I am also taking the Over.
My Score prediction.
Keep reading below for Game Notes from Duke Sports Information
HOW TO FOLLOW
Duke (6-4, 3-3 ACC) at Virginia (2-8, 1-5 ACC)
Saturday, November 18, 2023 • 3 PM
Charlottesville, Va. • Scott Stadium (61,500)
TELEVISION • The CW
GAME NOTES • Duke Notes • Virginia Notes
LIVE STATS • VirginiaSports.com
TWITTER • @DukeFOOTBALL
The Blue Devils join Louisville and Florida State as the only ACC schools averaging 25.0 points or more per game (27.60 ppg, 7th) and allowing 20.0 points or less per outing (18.80 ppg, 3rd).
Duke ranks sixth in the ACC, averaging 5.77 yards per play. The Blue Devils have averaged 5.0 yards per play in 6-of-10 games in 2023, missing the mark against No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 4 Florida State, No. 18 Louisville, and Wake Forest.
Redshirt sophomore linebacker Tre Freeman leads the team and ranks fifth in the ACC with 85 tackles on the year. The Durham, N.C., native is averaging 8.50 tackles per game and has led the Blue Devils in tackles in five contests against No. 9 Clemson, No. 11 Notre Dame, NC State, Wake Forest, and No. 24 North Carolina. Over his last six outings, Freeman has compiled 64 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, one interception, one caused fumble and four quarterback pressures.
Graduate running back Jordan Waters ranks tied for seventh in the ACC in scoring with 72 points and tied for second in points scored by touchdown (12). The Fairmont, N.C., native ranks second in the league in rushing touchdowns (12) and eighth in rushing yards (677). He has scored one rushing touchdown in eight of Duke's 10 games this season.
Under head coach Mike Elko, Duke has won the turnover battle in 13 of its 23 games and have finished 10-3 during that stretch. The Blue Devils have lost the turnover battle just three times under Elko (Georgia Tech, 2022; Notre Dame, 2023; and Louisville, 2023).
POINTS OFF TURNOVERS
The Blue Devils rank third in the ACC in points scored off turnovers this season with 67. They trail Syracuse (75) and Clemson (73). Louisville (53) and Boston College (51) are the next closest to Duke.
Additionally, Duke trails Florida State (13 points) and North Carolina (13 points) in fewest points allowed off turnovers this year with 26 points given up.
Under head coach Mike Elko, Duke has scored 139 points off turnovers (18 touchdowns, four field goals and one two-point conversion).
DUKE'S RUN GAME
The Blue Devils rank 39th nationally and fifth in the ACC in rushing offense, averaging 179.90 yards per outing.
Additionally, Duke ranks 17th in the country in yards per rush (5.11), tied for 20th in rushing touchdowns (23) and 39th in rushing yards (1,799). In the ACC, those marks rank the Blue Devils second, tied for second, and fifth, respectively. RB Jordan Waters is averaging 5.60 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 41st nationally and sixth in the ACC behind Louisville's Jawhar Jordan (6.92), Florida State's Trey Benson (6.38), North Carolina's Omarion Hampton (6.00), Georgia Tech's Jamal Haynes (5.91) and Clemson's Phil Mafah (5.72).
LOFTIS AGAINST THE TAR HEELS
Rookie quarterback Grayson Loftis earned his first career road start against No. 24 North Carolina last Saturday, finishing 16-of-28 passing for a season-best 189 yards and three touchdowns. He also added six rushes for eight yards with one score.
The Gaffney, S.C., native rallied Duke from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to twice take the lead before the Blue Devils fell in double overtime. In the fourth quarter, he completed 9-of-16 passes for 125 yards and one touchdown, while going 3-of-3 passes for 16 yards and one score in overtime.
On Duke's single-game charts for freshmen, Loftis' totals rank tied for fourth for touchdown passes and 10th for passing efficiency (149.20).
MOST SEASONS WITH 500+ RECEIVING YARDS
Redshirt senior Jalon Calhoun became the 11th Blue Devil in program history to register 500-plus receiving yards in three seasons at Duke.
STAND YOUR GROUND
Duke has two players with 60-plus tackles on the year in Tre Freeman (85) and Jaylen Stinson (65). The Blue Devils are one of seven schools in the ACC with at least two players with 60-plus tackles on the year, joining Boston College, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest.
Duke has finished with two players with double-digit tackles in a single game three times on the year against No. 9 Clemson, No. 11 Notre Dame and Wake Forest.
TACKLES FOR LOSS
In 10 games this season, Duke has compiled 57.0 tackles for loss, led by a team-best 7.0 from N Brandon Johnson. DT Aeneas Peebles and DE Wesley Williams follow closely behind with 6.0 and 5.0 tackles for loss, respectively, on the year.
Under head coach Mike Elko, the Blue Devils have recorded 16 games with 5.0-plus tackles for loss, including eight-of-10 games in 2023. Duke achieved a season high 8.0 tackles for loss against Connecticut, NC State and No. 24 North Carolina.
During its last outing against No. 24 North Carolina, Duke had five players finish with 100-plus snaps played in Al Blades Jr. (109), Jaylen Stinson (107), Tre Freeman (103), Chandler Rivers (101), and Brandon Johnson (100).
LIMITING PUNT RETURNS
The Blue Devils held opponents to just 74 punt return yards last season. An average of just 5.69 yards per return. The longest return Duke allowed was a 16-yarder against Kansas. Duke's opponent yards per return ranked 37th nationally and ranked fifth in the ACC behind Virginia Tech (2.91), Miami (3.80), Pittsburgh (4.83) and Louisville (5.52).
In Duke's 10 games of 2023, the Blue Devils have only relinquished 34 yards on 14 returns (2.43). That mark ranks them 11th nationally and first in the ACC.