From Wallace Wade to Wherever: Duke's Bowl Watch - Week 11

After taking off the bye week and then watching that epic Duke win over Clemson in Death Valley we’re back with Week 11 bowl projections from Brian Kennedy of Duke Football Talk and myself, Freddie Hodges of Duke Report.

​Freddie Hodges – Duke Report

Embracing the ACC Chaos
How do you go from projecting Duke in the Fenway Bowl back in Week 9 to where I’m about to go now? Well… let’s just say I took a deep dive down the rabbit hole today — and I’m still trying to climb out. I started looking at every remaining ACC schedule, every possible scenario, and all the wild “what ifs” that could (key word: could) happen if the dice roll just right.

And if you think my new projection is way off? Hey, I totally get it. I’ll even give you a full money-back guarantee — which is pretty generous considering, you know, this content on Blue Devils Blog is free 😂.

Right now, predicting ACC bowl destinations feels like throwing a dart into the ocean and hoping it hits a dartboard rocking on the waves. I’ve racked my brain, gone through half a bottle of white-out, and crumpled up enough notebook paper to fill a recycling bin. The league is packed with teams hovering near the top, and trying to sort through it all feels like a longshot — maybe even a lottery ticket.

There’s still plenty of football left, and the season has a lot of chaos still to play out. I could realistically see Duke ending up anywhere from the Fenway Bowl to the Pinstripe, Duke’s Mayo, Sun, Holiday, Pop-Tarts, or even (dare I say it) the College Football Playoff. The only one I’m ruling out? The Gator Bowl — after that Ole Miss beatdown last year, I doubt Duke makes a return trip there anytime soon.

Make no mistake — “Coastal Chaos” is alive, well, and screaming louder than ever. The ACC is total madness at the top right now. But Vegas is taking notice of Duke’s run, and some sportsbooks actually have the Blue Devils favored to win the ACC Championship. And honestly? I’m right there with them.

That road win at Clemson was a statement. Manny Diaz showed serious guts going for two in the final minutes, with Duke pulling off that 46–45 win in Death Valley didn’t just make Duke fans believe — it caught the oddsmakers’ attention too.

Here’s where I’m at:

• Clemson, despite the record, is still a talented team. That win was legit.

 

• Virginia and Georgia Tech? I don’t think they’re quite as good as some people believe. GT just lost to NC State, and Virginia’s luck might be running out soon. Vegas may agree, with UVA only a 6.5-point favorite at home vs. Wake Forest this weekend.

 

• Miami, sitting with two ACC losses, is basically on the outside looking in when it comes to Charlotte.

With the first College Football Playoff rankings out, it’s looking like the ACC will be a one-team playoff league — which means my early Miami-to-Pop-Tarts Bowl and Georgia Tech-to-Gator Bowl projections might hold.

As for Duke, the final four games — UConn, Virginia, UNC, and Wake Forest — are all winnable if Duke avoids digging early holes. Win all four, and you’re talking about a potential serious run at the ACC Championship Game.

Pitt still has to face Georgia Tech and Miami, and Louisville’s road (with Clemson and SMU still ahead) isn’t any easier. SMU could make noise, but that Louisville matchup will be a tough one.

For now, some sportsbooks have it like this for the ACC Championship:

• Duke +250
• Georgia Tech +300
• Virginia +375
• Louisville +375
• SMU +1100

If Duke wins out and takes home the ACC title, that puts them at 10–3, and possibly (even with 3 losses) one of the top five conference champs — which could earn them an automatic bid into the  12-team College Football Playoff.

Call me crazy, maybe it’s all those years around the Cameron Crazies and Wade Whackos, but this week my projection has Duke in the College Football Playoff — sneaking in as one of the bottom seeds and heading on the road to face a higher seed.

Wild? Absolutely.
Possible? Anything is possible with ACC Chaos! 

But hey, it's ACC Chaos — and anything can happen.

First step: take care of business on the road at UConn this Saturday!  

​Brian Kennedy - Duke Football Talk

Well Duke fans, if you have not been entertained by this team so far this season, I've got nothing for you. Duke went down to Death Valley and claimed their first road win over Clemson since 1980. This was also the first time since 1969-1970 where the Devils have won 2 straight against Clemson. While this game was one for the ages, Duke still has work to do. The win did put them one step closer to bowl eligibility, but they still need to handle business against Connecticut this weekend. A Duke win, and Duke will be bowl eligible for the 4th consecutive season, which has not happend since 2012-2015.

Now for the not so fun part. Coastal Chaos continues to reek havoc on the ACC, further muddying the waters of post season play. With Georgia Tech's loss to NC State, all 1 loss teams now have a shot to make it to Charlotte to the ACC title game. Virginia is hosting Wake this weekend, and a Cavaliers loss could certainly happen. If that does, Coastal Chaos will have grown to a category 5 situation. These next few weeks are going to be wild.

As far as where Duke could be headed, that is even harder to nail down. A lot of factors come into play, and there are some out there that show NO ACC team making the playoff which would throw a huge wrench into where teams go. Instead of getting clarity on things, more teams are becoming bowl eligible, with others knocking on the door such as Duke. I am still going off the notion that at least 1 ACC school will make the playoffs.

With all that being said, I am yet again moving the Blue Devils to a new destination. As I am going through scenarios in my head, I no longer see Florida as a path for Duke (unless they win out). A northern bowl is certainly an option but based off where I have certain teams landing, I am moving the Blue Devils to El Paso and the Sun Bowl.

Personally, I don't want to see this for the sake of fans being able to go and the distance to travel. As I have stated before, the more Duke wins, the more options open up for bowl destinations. Here is to Duke defeating Connecticut this weekend and becoming bowl eligible!

​Stay tuned — Brian and I will be updating projections every week right here at Blue Devils Blog. See you at Wallace Wade.