Duke vs Middle Tennessee State - Quick Thoughts and Score Prediction

QUICK THOUGHTS

For the past two weeks, Duke football has rallied from fourth-quarter deficits to secure victories.  Now, Duke aims to finish non-conference play undefeated as they travel to Murfreesboro, Tennessee, for a 4 PM Eastern kickoff against Middle Tennessee State.  The Blue Raiders (1-2) are also led by a first-year head coach, similar to Duke.  Interestingly, this will be the first time Middle Tennessee's Derek Mason and Duke's Manny Diaz face off, despite both being in their second stints as head coaches.

Another interesting storyline involves Duke’s coaching staff, with three members returning to familiar territory.  Head coach Manny Diaz previously served as Middle Tennessee’s defensive coordinator and safeties coach (2006-07) and later as defensive coordinator and linebackers coach (2008-09).  Tight ends coach Justin Watts was Middle Tennessee’s recruiting coordinator and wide receivers coach (2006-14).  Running backs coach Willie Simmons also coached at Middle Tennessee, working as running backs coach (2007-09) and later offensive coordinator and pass game coordinator.  


SCORE PREDICTION

Duke heads into Saturday’s matchup as a 14.5-point favorite, with the Over/Under set at 51.5 points.  What stands out so far?  Duke has scored exactly 26 points in each of its first three games, a sign of consistency, but perhaps also of untapped offensive potential.

After back-to-back fourth-quarter comebacks, this road game presents a perfect opportunity for the Blue Devils to flip the script—starting strong, setting the offensive tone early, and building a lead they can hold onto.  I expect Duke’s offense to find another gear and break away from that 26-point threshold.

​With that in mind, I’m taking the Under for total points, but I see Duke putting up 34 points of their own.  The defense, which has been a strength, should handle Middle Tennessee State, limiting them to just 13 points.  This is the kind of game where Duke can control both sides of the ball and send a message moving forward as ACC play is up next.  

DUKE  34
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE  13