Duke vs Florida State - Quick Thoughts and Score Prediction

QUICK THOUGHTS

Duke football is coming off a much-needed bye week following its first loss of the season to Georgia Tech.  Not many expected Duke to be 5-1 at this point, and even fewer could have predicted the dramatic turn Florida State's season has taken.  To be honest, I had FSU pegged as one of my preseason playoff teams.

Now, Florida State heads to Durham with a disappointing 1-5 record (1-4 in the ACC) to face a 5-1 Duke team eager to secure bowl eligibility as the season crosses the halfway mark.

Let’s talk numbers.  Florida State’s offensive production so far reads like this: 21, 13, 12, 9, 16, 13.  That’s the point total they’ve put up in each game.  On the other hand, Duke's defense has been a dominant force, ranking first in the NCAA in tackles for loss per game.  The challenge for Duke?  Their offense is still a work in progress.  All of this has me leaning toward a low-scoring game and considering the under.

SCORE PREDICTION

At the time of writing, Duke is favored by 3.5 points, with the Over/Under set at 42.5.  There’s a part of me that believes Duke will come out strong and maintain a comfortable double-digit lead throughout the game.  But there’s also that nagging thought: Despite all that’s gone wrong for FSU this season, could they show up with a fight when they are backed into a corner?

Vegas has the spread at -3.5, and while my heart wants a Duke blowout, I’m predicting a close contest.  Ultimately, I think Duke secures win number six and locks in bowl eligibility under the Friday night lights at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Duke 21
Florida State 17