 It’s not every year that the favorites make the Final Four… oh wait, last year all four No. 1 seeds did (still wild to say). For the record, that’s only happened twice in NCAA Tournament history—2008 and 2025. That’s exactly why simply rolling with the preseason betting favorites--
Purdue (+900), Houston (+1000), Duke (+1100), and UConn (+1400)-- feels a little too safe… and honestly, a little boring. With that in mind, here are my Duke Report preseason Final Four picks. I didn’t just follow the top of the odds board. I picked four teams that genuinely have the right mix of coaching, momentum, talent—and yeah, maybe a sprinkle of March Madness luck—to make a real run. My Preseason Final Four Picks 🟥 St. John’s (+1900) Rick Pitino is quietly (or not so quietly) building something serious in Queens. Year three with his system, roster upgrades, and that Pitino-in-March energy? Don’t be surprised if the Red Storm are still standing in April. 〽️ Michigan (+1900) They hit the Sweet 16 last year, and that felt like the beginning, not the end. Returning pieces and rising confidence give Michigan the DNA of a team ready to level up. 🔴 Texas Tech (+2000) An Elite Eight run last season shows what this team is capable of. Physical, disciplined, and defensively sound—everything that thrives in March. If their offense clicks, watch out. 🔵 Duke (+1100) Call it bias—I call it belief. Duke has all the pieces not only to get back to the Final Four but to take a real swing at banner No. 6. Why St. John’s Can Do It At 73, it just feels like Rick Pitino is going for it all with nothing to lose. St. John’s is finally built for a deep March run, and you can feel it. Pitino’s got this team defending, rebounding, and now adding real scoring firepower with big-time transfers like Ian Jackson and Bryce Hopkins. Coming off a Big East title and playing with swagger, the Red Storm have the momentum, toughness, and coach to crash the 2026 Final Four party. Why Michigan Can Do It Michigan is quietly building a Final Four-ready roster, led by superstar transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, who brings elite scoring, rebounding, and defensive versatility. With Elliot Cadeau running point and a revamped frontcourt featuring Aday Mara and Morez Johnson, the Wolverines have the size, athleticism, and depth to battle anyone in March. After a Sweet Sixteen run and a Big Ten title under Dusty May, this team isn’t rebuilding—it’s reloading for a shot at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. Why Texas Tech Can Do It Texas Tech is primed for a deep March run in 2026, led by All-American forward JT Toppin, who averaged 18.2 points and 9.4 rebounds last season and opted to return for his junior year. With sharpshooter Donovan Atwell joining the squad, the Red Raiders now have the scoring firepower to complement their trademark defense. Under head coach Grant McCasland, Texas Tech has the coaching skill and roster depth to make a serious Final Four push. Why Duke Can Do It With Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster returning, plus the arrival of the Boozer twins and international standout Dame Sarr, this roster has star power and depth. Sarr has already impressed in practices and at Countdown—he’s the real deal. And speaking of tests, Duke’s monster schedule—already detailed here at Blue Devils Blog—has them facing two other of my Final Four picks on neutral courts:
Battle-tested won’t be a question. Duke will know exactly where it stands long before March. And let’s not forget the destiny-like vibes: the 2026 Final Four is in Indianapolis, a city Duke fans know well. Three of Duke’s five national titles came in Indy: 🏆 1991 🏆 2010 🏆 2015 History, talent, motivation—if the pieces click, Duke absolutely has another Final Four run in them. Final Thought These picks are for fun—if I truly knew the Final Four ahead of time, I’d be in Vegas or Cherokee right now filling out slips. …But let’s just say I might already have Duke on one anyway. 😉
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